- Jul 17, 2012
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Galic Ho said:My apologies. I thought you were bashing on Moncoutie.
Here is a link to the top Tour times for Alpe d'Huez. Top 200. Of the list...Luis Herrera and Lemond have clean times. Maybe Fignon...amphetamines only. The rest? Blood doping and epo. All of them...well to varying degrees as the times and years show. Make no mistake...Sastre was a big time doper. 3 sub 40 minute times in the Tour. That's alien territory.
http://www.thehubsa.co.za/forum/topic/126865-alpe-dhuez-all-time-top-200-list/
Wasn't Ventoux in the third week? Take Alpe d'Huez...Luis Herrera arguably has the fastest legit time on that list. 160th for one of the most gifted climbers of all time. He did it in 41'50" which is just behind the times Evans group did in 2008. Naturally I'd say Lemond's 146th placed time is the fastest clean time at 41'42" but that was done with him drafting two EPO dopers in 91. So many times are faster from 91 on that list and from guys who two years before were getting annihilated from Lemond who himself was a minute plus slower.
So let's take a look at Herrera versus Pantani shall we?
Marco managed 36'50" one time back in 1995. I have another record of 36'40" but the first time is fine...don't wanna make Marco look even more absurd do I?
36'50" = 2210 seconds
Herrera did 41'50" = 2510
2510-2210 = 300 seconds. Or 5 minutes exactly.
Note for Froome the difference in time on a longer and harder climb was already LOWER than this shorter climb. Alpe d'Huez is also shielded from the wind. Mt Ventoux is not and Froome rode a lot of that climb with no wind breaker.
So Froome on a longer climb, after a massive stage (note the Alpe d'Huez stages are also rarely over 180-90 km not 220km...it matters despite what some tell you) was 189 seconds off the record or just over 3 minutes. In contrast we have Herrera who was exactly 5 minutes off the record.
So to get the percentage difference we do the following:
300/2210 = 13.57%. Now that is just time, but it's well over double what Froome's time was and this is for a much shorter distance. How about Lemond's times from non epo ball busting years? Well they are on the forum but I can't be bothered to find them. But they were in the 42' minute range, just over from memory, so just outside the top 200 times. Maybe a minute slower in 89 than Delgado and Fignon from memory. Still fast, but over 15% down.
Take the 1986 reported time Lemond and Fignon did after breaking an entire peloton on the previous mountain and riding off alone. Note ENTIRE PELOTON. 48'00". Thus:
48'00" = 2880 seconds or a difference of 670 seconds. So 11 minutes and a bit. No biggie right?
Percentage wise that gives us 670/2210 = 30.1%
Now the analysis part is that was just two men, ridng solo for half a stage. So naturally it will be slower. But note, nobody could go with them and they are still so much slower it isn't funny. They won 8 Tours between themselves and barring a shotgun incident and EPO, they'd have won 10 Tours no sweat and maybe more. I still reckon Lemond could have gotten 7 if he was never shot and epo wasn't invented. But that is wishing.
So taking Heras Ventoux time and let's say a safe estimate of 15% given Herrera was a climbing freak...kind of like what is said about Quintana...and assuming the best all round GC would be slower than Herrera who was a pure climber what does that give us time wise?
Heras Ventoux record in just the Dauphine:
55'51" = 3351 seconds
3351*15% = 502.65 seconds or round up to 503.
Adding the 502 seconds to Heras time, we get 8'23" difference.
So 55'51" plus 8'23" we get 1:4'14". This is a whole 5 minutes and 14 seconds SLOWER than Froome. This isn't even considering a safe estimate for percentage times done above was done using EPO Tour times versus 80 Tour times for Alpe d'Huez. Ventoux is Dauphine versus Tour.
So who was clean? I sure as hell don't think Froome was. How much time did Evans lose this year, when Gilbert and Morabito pulled him up? 8'46". John Gadret did 4'56" slower than Froome and Jan Bakelants did 5'04" slower. They were in 22nd and 23rd place. BTW Gadret bagged the crap out of Froome and Sky. So I'd give him the benefit of the doubt. Plus he rides for a French team and isn't a tool.
Now I'm not saying they were super elite. Granted I just found out this was stage 15...but that is double the race days of a Dauphine Ventoux ascent. So less fatigue at this stage than say in the last 3 days. Let's assume Dan Martin is clean, or relatively so. He was 14th 2'36" so about half the time of Gadret and Bakelants. Martin tanked after this stage. He totally bombed out. Is he the best clean rider in the peloton? I don't think so. I still see WAY TOO MANY guys going way too fast. They're all simply not that good. Check the list here:
http://www.cyclingnews.com/tour-de-france/stage-15/results
Take the Alpe d'Huez times. Fignon and Delgado just managed under 42' in 1989 over Lemond. These guys won 6 Tours between them. They were the only riders at the front. The only ones. Everyone else dropped. Yet here we have Richie Porte, faking on Ventoux, less than 10 seconds behind Martin. That's not normal. It was the Chiefs, the Heads of State, the Big Boys only back in the 80s. Now we still have every random making a show of it. Guys who clearly were doped in recent years and yet despite dropping form, like Contador (take your pick why) they're still darn fast despite Froome whooping them.
Make no mistake. Froome could have gone faster. A lot faster. I think he held back. You want a safe number for what might be possible. 10-12% of a doped time. With a qualifier. The remaining guys behind this time get smashed. Just like the 80s. But we still have a lot of riders going under this % and I don't think it's normal given Lemond and Herrera were freaks of nature. Good from the get go.
BTW I like the number RR came up with 12% slower than the record. I'd buy that. Problem is like I said, Froome was under half of that, his history is a joke, his physique is a mockery on common sense, Sky are a joke and we're comparing a week long races chrono with the first stage of the third week of racing that topped 200km. Big difference! Summary...the 12% range seems to me like a good guess for most mountain stages at MINIMUM. Longer climbs like Ventoux should need more IMO. Also, always look at the followers, what they did. Froome was absurd...but so were a lot of others.
As for power meters and wattages...I don't care. General rule of thumb. Time wise, they are still way too fast and most here know it. Anyone doing over 5.7 W/kg on Ventoux is suspect. Anyone. ****** this 6.0 W/kg rule. Also Spencer...check the bragging Tim Kerrison was doing about Froome and Porte's Madone times. So close to Armstrong's it isn't funny. Ridiculously close. LA was doped to the gills when it he did it too.
Couple of points:
1 - Froome did 41 minutes up the Alpe this year, so there's only circa 1 minute not 2 minutes between him and Herrera.
2 - It can be exceptionally windy on Alpe D'Huez. I've ridden up it a few times and the wind from hairpins 4 to 3 and 2 to 1 can almost stop you in your tracks. Or at leastit can me. Maybe I don't pedal hard enough!
3 - Modern bikes, wheels and other kit etc. are a couple of kg lighter than 1980s machines. That equates to a non-trivial couple of % improvement in uphill performance, all other things equal, ie 45 seconds or so up the Alpe.